Thursday, April 9, 2009

The Bali Roadmap

Abstract
The Kyoto Treaty was drawn up in Japan in 1997. It commits industrialized nations to reducing emissions of greenhouse gasses (mostly carbon dioxide) by 5.2% below the 1990 levels over the next decade. The agreement needed to be ratified by countries that are responsible for at least 55% of carbon emissions in 1990 to come into force. Although the future of the treaty was in doubt after the US withdrawal from negotiations in 2001, the recent signing of a major Eurasian power has put the treaty into effect. Currently, only those countries that have signed the treaty are obligated to follow its provisions.
The US produced 36% of all emissions in 1990, making it the world’s biggest polluter. In 2001, President George W. Bush announced that the US would never sign the treaty. President Obama has yet to engage this issue. Now, scientists predict an increase in global surface temperature of between 1.4 to 5.8 degrees by 2100. Many others note that climate modeling is an inexact science.
To give the world an economic incentive to act, the WTO (World Trade Organization) is being brought into the equation. The WTO is an organization (supranational) for liberalizing trade. All member nations of the WTO benefit from reduced trade barriers. Indeed the stated purpose of the WTO is to help trade flow as freely as possible.
Free trade stimulates economic growth. It has been shown that jobs generated by international trade pay more. Other clear advantages of WTO membership are lower prices on goods imported, greater competitiveness internationally, and increased growth for the economy of each nation. With these clear and obvious advantages, membership in the WTO is critical, and supports a significant portion of each nations GNP. Loss of this membership could have profound implications economically for a country, and most importantly, its citizens.

Should the original 1997 Kyoto Protocol, and later the 2007 Bali Roadmap on climate change
a. be rejected by the international community
b. be accepted and implemented with enforced sanction of loss of membership in the
WTO for non-compliance.